9:40 P.M. ET:  As predicted, the two Georgia Senate races, at this hour, are extremely close.  Each of the races is separated by about a point, although that shifts from minute to minute.  Close to 76 percent of the vote is in.  The keys to the outcome of the races is where the remaining votes will come from, and the turnout in each of those areas.

The larger chunk of the remaining votes appear to be from Republican precincts.  Karl Rove is estimating that most or all of the GOP areas counted thus far have shown a Republican turnout larger than in the November election.  However, and it's a big however, there are still outstanding votes in Fulton County, which contains Atlanta, and which is heavily Democratic and African-American.  We don't know when those votes will be tabulated. 

It is common, in big-city politics, for some votes to be "held back" in close elections, usually by Democrats.  "Held back" means that they are not counted until all the other votes elsewhere are counted, or they are counted, with results not released to the public until all other votes are counted.  This gives the opportunity for manipulation of the numbers.  I do not charge that this is happening tonight, but I'd watch those last votes from Fulton County very carefully.

January 5,  2021